Automobile and Light Trucks Essay

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DOT HS 809 952

January 2006

Technical Report

V EH I CLE S U RV I V ABI LI T Y
AN D
T RAV EL M I LEAGE S CH EDU LES

Published By:
NHTSA’s
National Center for Statistics and Analysis

____________________________________________________________________________
This document is available to the public from the National Technical Information Service, Springfield, VA 22161

Technical Report Documentation Page
1. Report No.

2. Government Accession No.

3. Recipients's Catalog No.

DOT HS 809 952
4. Title and Subtitle

5. Report Date

January, 2006
Vehicle Survivability and Travel Mileage Schedules

6. Performing Organization Code

NPO-130
7. Author(s)

8. Performing Organization Report No.

S. Lu
9. Performing Organization Name and Address

10. Work Unit No. (TRAIS)n code

National Center for Statistics and Analysis
Regulatory Analysis and Evaluation Division
National Highway Traffic Safety Administration
U.S. Department of Transportation
NPO-130, 400 Seventh Street, S.W.
Washington, DC 20590
12. Sponsoring Agency Name and Address

11. Contract of Grant No.

13. Type of Report and Period Covered

NHTSA Technical Report

U.S. Department of Transportation
NPO-130, 400 Seventh Street, S.W.

14. Sponsoring Agency Code

Washington, DC 20590
15.Supplementary Notes

16. Abstract

This document serves to update the 1995 document of the same title. In this revision, we attempt to retain the methodology as much as possible from the previous release. Regardless, some changes were introduced in this updated analysis when needed. In this revision, we find that passenger cars and light trucks are being driven farther in their lifetimes (approximately 26,000 miles more per vehicle class). However, whereas younger passenger cars (less than 20 years old) are surviving slightly longer relative to the previous study, light trucks are not surviving as long as before early on in their existence, presumably due to the fact that they are being used more often as passenger vehicles than strictly for cargo.
The updated analysis shows that a typical passenger car will travel a lifetime mileage of 152,137 miles, while light trucks will travel 179,954 miles. Passenger car lifetime weighted present discount factors at 3 percent, 7 percent and 10 percent are, respectively, 0.8304, 0.6700 and 0.5824; for light trucks with the same discount rates, respectively, 0.8022, 0.6303 and 0.5419.
17. Key Words

18. Distribution Statement

VMT, vehicle miles traveled, survival rate, survivability, discount factors, lifetime vehicle mileage

Document is available to the public through the National
Technical Information Service,
Springfield, VA 22161

19. Security Classif. (of this report)

21. No of Pages

Unclassified
Form DOT F1700.7 (8-72)

20. Security Classif. (of this page)

Unclassified

22. Price

40 (including title page)
Reproduction of completed page authorized

Table of Contents

Executive Summary ____________________________________________________ 1
1. Introduction of Current Survivability and VMT Schedules _________________ 2
1.1. Passenger Cars ___________________________________________________ 2
1.2. Light Trucks _____________________________________________________ 2
2. Data Sources ________________________________________________________ 5
3. Survivability Analysis ________________________________________________ 6
3.1. Passenger Cars ___________________________________________________ 6
3.2 Light Trucks _____________________________________________________ 10
4. VMT Analysis______________________________________________________ 13
4.1. Passenger Cars __________________________________________________ 14
4.2. Light Trucks ____________________________________________________ 17
5. Lifetime Mileage____________________________________________________ 21
5.1. Passenger Cars __________________________________________________ 21
5.2. Light Trucks ____________________________________________________ 24
6. Discount
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