Decision Making
Organizational
Behavior
Talya Bauer and Berrin Erdogan
Programmed vs. Unprogrammed Decisions
Programmed decisions are straightforward decisions that occur frequently enough that an automated response is developed The automated response is called the decision rule
Decision making refers to making choices among choices among alternative courses of action.
- May also include inaction
Rational Decision Making Model
1. Identify the problem Unprogrammed decisions are unique and require conscious thinking, information gathering and careful consideration of alternatives 2. Establish decisions criteria
8. Evaluate the decision 3. Weigh decision criteria
7. Implement the decision
6. Choose the best alternative
4. Generate alternatives 5. Evaluate the alternatives 1
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Flaws of the Rational Decision Making Model
Assumes that people understand what the decision to be made is
Bounded Rationality Model
Individuals knowingly limit their options and choose the best alternative without conducting an exhaustive search for alternatives
A “good enough” decision is made Assumes that people know all their available choices
Assumes the people have no perceptual biases
Assumes that people want to make optimal decisions
Making Intuitive Decisions
Within a given situation, experts making decisions scan the environment for cues to recognize environment for cues to recognize patterns. Once a pattern is recognized, they can plan a potential course of action based on their prior experience.
Satisficing may occur which refers to accepting the first alternative that meets minimum criteria
The Creative Decision Making Process
Step 1
Problem
Recognition
Step 5
Step 2
Step 3
Step 4
Immersion
Incubation
Illumination
Verification
&
Application
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Choosing A Decision Making Model
Decision Making
Model
Rational
Bounded
Rationality
Intuitive
Creative
Use This Model When:
• Information on alternatives can be gathered and quantified. • The decision is important.
• You are trying to maximize your outcome.
• The minimum criteria are clear. minimum criteria are clear.
• You do not have or you are not willing to invest much time to making the decision.
• You are not trying to maximize your outcome.
• Goals are unclear.
• There is time pressure and analysis paralysis would be costly. • You have experience with the problem.
• Solutions to the problem are not clear.
• New solutions need to be generated.
• You have time to immerse yourself in the issues.
Opposite Biases
Overconfidence Bias
Hindsight Bias
Overestimating the ability to predict future events
Looking backward in time where mistakes made seem obvious after they have already occurred already occurred
82% of drivers surveyed feel they are in the top 30% of safe drivers
May cause an individual to
incorrectly