1979-2003: the arctic perennial sea ice (ice pack over the north pole) has decreased. The cause is probably based on warming patterns in the north. Possible factors: current or wind patterns but temperature changes are the major factor. Main concern: polar bears are going to die from starvation because they need an ice pack to hunt for food
Causes- Natural Changes (long term) * Solar radiation * Eccentricity- shape of orbit * Obliquity-tilt * Precession- wobble
Causes- Natural Changes (short term) * Sunspots (changes the amount of radiation released) * Air circulation- El Nino (Malvin) * Volcanism- ash, gas
Greenhouse Effect
-sun comes down and UV and radiation come in through the troposphere (short wave radiation comes to the earth). The remainder is absorbed (long wave radiation). It is absorbed/reflected by the gases in the atmosphere. You are keeping in heat. It is called the greenhouse effect because when you walk into a greenhouse in the winter it is hot; metaphor for keeping the heat in the atmosphere (creating a greenhouse around the planet) * Greenhouse Effect – warms lower troposphere – traps long-wave radiation * carbon dioxide 76%- coal, oil, deforestation * methane 13%- rice paddies, fire, cattle (mainly released through agriculture) * nitrous oxides 6% - fertilizers, fossil fuels * chlorofluorocarbons (CFC) 5%- aerosols, refrigerants, solvents
Global Climate Model General Circulation Model (GMC)
How do we model the climate of the air? It is controlled by the circulation of air and water on the earth
Impacts of Climate Change
Ecosystems | Forests | Agriculture | Sea-level Rise | Human Health | -migration of boundaries-possible extinction | -productivity changes-drought/wild fire and pests | -drought in continental areas-crop selection and manipulation | -increase: global water rise and ocean volume-natural hazards | -epidemics/ diseases/ pests-increase in ground level smog |
Ozone Depletion * depleting substances: chlorine, fluorine, carbon, hydrogen