Congressional Election Prediction

Words: 2552
Pages: 11
Open Document
Alyssa Nacco
2014 Congressional Election Prediction Paper
10/28/2014

Six Seats is All It Takes!

The 2014 midterm elections are extremely important. With the Senate being a Democratic majority, it is up in the air if Republicans will be able to grab enough seats and regain control of the Senate. There are some closely contested races that show strong possibilities that Republicans will gain the majority, while in some cases the democratic candidates are predicted to take the lead. There are incumbents who are at risk of losing their seat, and there are several open elections that could go to either party. There are currently 45 Republicans and 55 Democrats in the Senate, and 233 Republicans and 201 Democrats in the House of Representatives. …show more content…
The three most important for a Republican pick-up are the Iowa Senate Race, the Montana Senate Race, and the South Dakota Senate Race. Each of these elections are going to be affected by the attractiveness of the candidates running, the influence of money, and partisanship. Candidate image is important an important factor in elections, and especially midterm elections. This is because a person will typically vote for the more likeable candidate, even if they know little about the race. Also, if someone knows a small amount about the race, they will typically align their votes with their partisanship. When a candidate is running, some voters are only aware of whether or not they are an incumbent, and what their party is. That is why creating a good image through big spending and advertisements will help Republican candidates this election. The Iowa race is against Democratic candidate Bruce Braley and Republican candidate Joni Ernst. Joni Ernst is predicted to win over Braley, even though Iowa is a Democratic state and Braley led the polls since March. Ernst is an extremely attractive candidate, she is a farmer, a mother, an Army veteran, and gun enthusiast, all things that are held close to the heart in Iowa. She is a conservative Republican, but not too conservative to scare off the people of Iowa. Ernst has also raised more money than …show more content…
The 2006 midterm elections hold an increasingly similar parallel to the 2014 midterm elections. In both races, the majority was and is trying to avoid being politically dragged down by the president’s poor approval ratings. In 2006, however, it was the Republicans who were being dragged down and lost their majority of 55 seats to Democrats. The main factor for this was because of George W. Bush’s 37% approval rating. Democrats were more likely to vote to show that they disapproved of Bush, just like how Republican’s are doing this midterm election. The Republican Party lost six senate seats, which is all Democrats need to lose to become the minority. Both of these elections are occurred or occurred as a second midterm election of the presidency. Obama is not nationally popular, which is similar to the conditions of the 2006 midterm
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