Essay on Deere quarterly sales analysis

TO: JB Penn, Chief Economist, Deere & Co.
FROM:
DATE: 29 October 2014
SUBJECT: Quarterly sales analysis

Following an analysis of sales data between 1995 and 2012, it is recommended that that Deere and Co. incorporate the seasonal indicator variables model to forecast future sales. In the regression analysis for this model it was determined that it was able to explain approximately
90% of the variability in past sales. Adjustments to this forecasting model can be made by incorporating overall economic climate projections, long-term weather forecasts, and commodity market futures.
As evidenced in the sales plot, from January 31, 1995 through July 31, 2014 John Deere has enjoyed steady sales growth with seasonal peaks recorded at end of …show more content…
SMOOTHING

THREE MONTHS ENDED

YEAR

DEERE SALES

3-PERIOD

4-PERIOD

0.6

January 31st

1999

2,459

3,046

3,126

2,836

April 30th

1999

3,468

2,988

2,991

3,215

July 31st

1999

3,036

3,097

2,923

3,108

October 31st

1999

2,788

2,721

2,948

2,916

January 31st

2000

2,339

2,972

3,063

2,570

April 30th

2000

3,790

3,254

3,211

3,302

July 31st

2000

3,632

3,599

3,330

3,500

October 31st

2000

3,376

3,238

3,378

3,426

January 31st

2001

2,705

3,297

3,379

2,993

April 30th

2001

3,809

3,377

3,350

3,483

July 31st

2001

3,618

3,529

3,300

3,564

October 31st

2001

3,161

3,100

3,300

3,322

January 31st

2002

2,522

3,223

3,366

2,842

April 30th

2002

3,987

3,493

3,448

3,529

July 31st

2002

3,969

3,808

3,521

3,793

October 31st

2002

3,469

3,411

3,606

3,599

January 31st

2003

2,794

3,554

3,712

3,116

April 30th

2003

4,400

3,865

3,825

3,886

July 31st

2003

4,402

4,247

3,970

4,196

October 31st

2003

3,939

3,942

4,241

4,042

January 31st

2004

3,484

4,433

4,553

3,707

April 30th

2004

5,877

4,926

4,838

5,009

July 31st

2004

5,418

5,501

5,077

5,254

October 31st

2004

5,207

4,917

5,250

5,226

January 31st

2005

4,127

5,318

5,417

4,567

April 30th

2005

6,621

5,584

5,486

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