Forecasting and Opinion Qualitative Forecasting Essay

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Jury Executive Opinion: When a business choose to use the Jury of the executive opinion qualitative forecasting model, they rely on the opinions of high-level managers. Companies may incorporate statistical models to help with the analysis. The resulting group estimate becomes the forecast such as weekly sales increase of 25% by the end of the quarter. After six months of increase, weekly sales profit have also increased. Small businesses may find this model easier to use because of its simplicity. For example, an owner can convene all of the department managers or her advisory board members, share industry or company statistics with the group, then request everyone’s opinion. After some discussion, the group will typically arrive at a consensus estimate the owner can use for forecasting. According to Keat, Young, & Erfle (2013), the use of forecasting help develop realistic expectations in decision-making that is considered an aid to the process (p. 132). But in some cases a downfall could occur due to lack of influence of a member to proceed with the process. After identifying this forecast, I feel that the scientific discoveries of biblical forecast do not change my perspective as a tool for my spiritual planning. Because of that significant one person could cause no growth for my spiritual life.

The Delphi Method is identified as a forecasting method based on the results of questionnaires sent to a panel of experts. Several rounds of questionnaires are sent out, and the anonymous responses are aggregated and shared with the group after each round. The experts are allowed to adjust their answers in subsequent rounds. Because multiple rounds of questions are asked and because each member of the panel is told what the group thinks as a whole, the Delphi Method seeks to reach the “correct” response through consensus. The downfall of this method is time-consuming with the rounds of questionnaires that is sent out for anonymous responses from panels of experts. Also may lead to subjective decision making. Once again this is a forecast that do not apply for my spiritual planning regardless of the panel of experts. The scripture quote to have faith in the Lord. But who are the panel of experts that dictate my spiritual planning and not knowing if they are Christians. The bottom line financial experts state that forecasting can be a dangerous art. Because the forecasts become a focus for companies and governments, mentally limiting their range of actions, by presenting the short to long-term future as already being determined (n.d.). The Opinion Polls can also be used by companies that chose to take surveys of the views of randomly chosen samples of the population and draw
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