Essay about Regret Decision Regret

Submitted By daxs3790
Words: 701
Pages: 3
Open Document
Probability Distributions:
Uniform: each result has same probability (rolling a single dice)
Normal: z is the number of stan dev’s away from the mean = z = value – mean / st dev.
Binomial: (put formula here)
Triangular: has mode (most likely), max and min.
Poisson: a discrete distribution (a count) number of successes in an interval (λ) depends on the success rate and the interval length.
Exponential: μ is average time to complete a task, or interval between events. It is a continuous distribution. If poisson rate applies, then interval between is exponential.

Above formula will give you percentage that the task will be completed within x mins of the average.Turn the interval (μ) into a rate (λ) λ = 1/μ – f(x) = λe- λx

Simulation is the process of designing a mathematical or logical model of a real system and then conducting computer-based experiments with the model to describe, explain, and predict the behavior of the real system.
Simulation is the most widely used Decision Analysis technique used to gain knowledge about outcomes to assess risk
Continuous Simulation: based on math eqn’s and used for simulating continuous values. (time spend waiting in line) s 1 s 2 s 3 d 1
0
0
9,000
9,000 d 2
2,000
500
4,000
4,000 d 3
5,000
1,500
0
5,000
Maximum
Regret
Decision
Regret
Table
States of Nature
Discrete Simulation: simulation specific values or points (number waiting in queue)
Advan: leads to better understanding, can model any assumptions, easier to explain, provides a more realistic replication.
Disadvan: no guarantee it will provide good results, no way to prove reliable, time consuming, it’s random based may be less accurate.

The Monte Carlo technique is defined as a technique for selecting numbers randomly from a probability distribution for use in a trial (computer run) of a simulation model.

Validation and Verification
Verification done by expert, validation can be done by using past data in simulation and seeing if results are correct.
Steps in Validation: 1. develop model that looks reasonable to those that understand system 2. Validate assumption 3. Validate output
You are looking for the long run steady state operation of a system

QUEUING
Size of population can be infinite or finite
Behaviour of arrivals (patient, balk, renege)
Waiting line can have limited or unlimited capacity

DECISIONS WITH UNCERTAINTY
Laplace (assume equally likely) MAXIMAX (MAX the MAXimum Payoff) Take the Maximum value from all the maxs

MAXIMIN (MAX the Minimum Payoff) Take the greatest value from all the mins

MINIMAX Regret (minimize Opport Cost) Take the oppourtunity loss of each cell, and take the decision which has the least highest regret.

These are for PROFIT, the opposite are for
Show More

Related Documents: Essay about Regret Decision Regret

Kathryn Schulz's Speech

concerned about) and that is regretting a tattoo decision. This leads into the discussion about regret and she starts off mentioning the idea that “concerning yourself with things that happened in the past is a waste of time.” Schulz talks about how there are two ways to live without regret and that is to be a sociopath or to have a front cortex injury. Which brings her into the main topic of her speech and that is learning to live with regret. She defines regret as the emotion of when we thing the current…

Words 747 - Pages 3

The Regrets That Come Along With Parenthood

ENG 3U Mr. Gordon October 10, 2013 The Regrets that Come Along with Parenthood Everyone has regrets, some that impact us and some that do not, regrets occur consciously while others unconscious. Regrets that are formed in a person’s past will affect a person’s future relationships in a negative way and influence behaviours that are deemed unacceptable due to where you fit in a society. While some people regret the decisions made in their past others regret who they’ve accepted into their life in the present…

Words 1284 - Pages 6

'Marigolds And Tamara's Opus'

Queen Latifah once said, “I made decisions that I regret, and I took them as learning experiences.” When you are going through a rough patch in your life, you will do things that you will regret. However, you need to push past the regret. You need to learn from your mistakes and learn to make the right choices. The narrators of the genres “Marigolds” and “Tamara’s Opus” reinforced this concept. Eugenia Collier, the author of the short story “Marigolds,” describes how Lizabeth is going through a challenging…

Words 313 - Pages 2

Comparison Of Two Tattoos

The two tattoos represent decisions we make in our life; some of them are perfect as we think and study the consequences of making this decision, like her first tattoo. Although some people, including her mother did not like it, she was pleased with her tattoo. However, we regret making other decisions. She admitted that it was not the doctor’s fault, as he told her that it would not be detailed as she wanted. These other decisions are not well-studied and could lead to permanent negative outcomes…

Words 390 - Pages 2

Catcher In The Rye Personal Narrative

the upstairs bathroom to wash off the paint. Sadly, I stayed a shade of green on my stomach for about three days. To this day, I do not understand why I made such a foolish decision to cover myself with paint and I look back on my two year old self and the only feeling that comes to mind is disappointment. While I certainly regret making such a foolish…

Words 1193 - Pages 5

The Road Not Taken Metaphor

to make and the outcomes will most always be a mystery. Frost's use of theme, setting, and an extended metaphor helps give the reader a better experience and understanding of the poem. The major theme in this poem is about making difficult decisions. The speaker in the poem is walking in a wooded area and comes across a fork in the road; at this spot, he has to decide which way to go. One of the roads looks as if it has been travelled many times and looks like a safer route. However, the other…

Words 764 - Pages 4

Essay on Regret & Love

Regret & Loving Til’ it Hurts In Johnny Cash’s song Hurt there are many themes but two that can relate to my life are regret and “loving til’ it hurts”. Everybody has had times of regret in their life whether they would want to admit it or not. Regrets can be good depending on the situation but the regret that I will be talking about is a bad one to me. My regret was one that happened in high school. I did not apply myself through most of my high school career. Even though I made good grades…

Words 610 - Pages 3

Decision Analysis Essay

Decision Analysis Decisions for Decision Theory Approach 1. Set of possible future conditions exist that will have a bearing on the results of the decision 2. A list of alternatives for manager to choose from 3. A known payoff for each alternative under each possible future condition 2 Concepts • Problem Formulation • Decision Making without Probabilities • Decision Making with Probabilities • Risk Analysis and Sensitivity Analysis • Decision Analysis with Sample Information • Computing…

Words 2264 - Pages 10

The River Sheila Mant Analysis

book The River, the Bass, and Sheila Mant the boy regrets his decision for the rest of his life. As the narrator is fighting the bass and watching Sheila his feelings for her over take any thoughts about the bass and he cuts the line. The boy chose the girl because he really liked her and he never though she would agree to go on a date with him. At the end of the date Sheila leaves with some body else, and the narrator is devastated with the decision he made. The boy loves Sheila and she doesn’t love…

Words 493 - Pages 2

Moving To America Poem Summary

States, can lead to the feeling of emptiness, families being torn apart, and other things that make them second guess their decision: Is moving to America really the best and most reliable option? Immigrants moving to the United States often suffer from loss of family connection and companionship; ultimately making the decision to journey into America a poor choice, that many regret. The children of immigrants who move to the United States usually take on American Culture, which helps their newer generation…

Words 964 - Pages 4